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Ukraine is caught in the cross fire

Ukraine is caught in the cross fire

Cover photo: Putin-Zhirinovsky Plan for Division of Ukraine, March 23, 2014  / Dr. Illarionov's Presentation / Atlantic Council, 07 Apr. 2015

On April 3, 2015 UaPost posted my blog article (“Ukraine is fighting for us”) about the conversation with General Wesley K. Clark (Ret.) at the Atlantic Council, a former NATO Supreme Allied Commander. The Ex-NATO Chief analyzed the war in Ukraine and gave his recommendations from American prospective.

In this article, I will give you the main points presented by a prominent Russian thinker and analyst Dr. Andrei Illarionov.  He gave his speech at the Atlantic Council on April 7, 2015.

Who is Dr. Andrei Illarionov?

Dr. Andrei Illarionov is a Senior Fellow in the Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity at the Cato Institute (USA) and the President of the Institute of Economic Analysis, an independent economic think tank in Moscow, Russia. Dr. Illarionov lives in the Unites States (U.S.), he is married and has two children.

Russia Today, a major Russian state-funded television network, wrote about Dr. Illarionov, “Illarionov has become one of the most outspoken critics of Russia’s political system. He has used his frequent public speaking engagements and newspaper columns in leading Western media as a platform to attack the Russian government for corruption, meddling and squandering economic opportunities afforded by historically high oil and gas prices.”

Why is his speech so important to us?

Dr. Andrei Illarionov is a former Putin’s adviser who served in Kremlin six years. He offered his deep analyses of how Kremlin spent over a decade preparing to the war against Ukraine economically, politically, militarily, mentally and psychologically. He also explained what was behind Putin’s plan and gave his thoughts on how to work with Russia.

Main points of the presentation

The first important point is about the term “Ukrainian crisis” or “crisis in Ukraine.” We often hear many people say this when describing the situation in Ukraine. It is deeply incorrect. For own reasons, people are afraid to call it by its name – a war. It is indeed a "real conventional war and its intensity, especially in Eastern Ukraine, is comparable to the military operations during the WW2," as explained Dr. Illarionov.

In a war, there are at least two sides, and we clearly see two sides here: Ukraine and Russia.  Sometimes we may call a war by the name of its main author, and in our case, it is Mr. Putin’s war against Ukraine.

“It took Kremlin at least 11 years to prepare for the war against Ukraine and maybe even 14, depending on the event which we take for the starting point,” said Dr. Illarionov.

The second important point is about the scale of this war. As Dr. Illarionov points out, "it is not just Russian war against Ukraine. It is more Mr. Putin’s war against the West.  The war against the West is carried not just in the conventional form but in some other ways like bribery, corruption, information and disinformation wars. Especially worrisome is Kremlin’s nuclear blackmail." Dr. Illarionov explained that this war was worse than the old traditional Cold War (1947-1991) because of some elements that haven’t been seen during the war of the 20th-century. Just to name a few: military weakness of Europe, lack of desire from the U.S. to be involved in this war and deep division of the Western alliance in its response towards Kremlin’s policies.

History about the Donetsk People’s Republic flag

Everyone saw the flag of the Donetsk People’s Republic but not many of us knew that that flag was created back in 2005. In 2005 pro-Putin youth has gathered in Seliger Youth Camp (Russia) where they proudly presented the current flag of Donetsk People’s Republic. This is a perfect example of the fact that Kremlin spent many years on the preparations for the war against Ukraine.

"Draft of the Operation “Clockwork Orange” is leaked on April 21, 2008"

Not many people paid attention to this “fortunate accident” and even worse, it did not ring a bell for the Ukrainian government. That draft was a Russian plan of occupation of Ukraine. The plan explained how Russian military operations should be organized in Eastern Ukraine and in Crimea. 

"The official announcement of Russian Hybrid War against Ukraine"

As Dr. Illarionov proved, it happened on July 27, 2013 in Kyiv during the celebration of 1025th Anniversary of Baptism of Rus. Fiona Hill, correspondent for Reuters, described Russian Hybrid War in Ukraine in her article on February 26, 2015.  "In January 2013 Valery Gerasimov, chief of staff of the Russian armed forces, announced the Russian military would engage in a “new kind of war” fought with “nonmilitary methods to achieve political and strategic goals.” These methods would involve fomenting popular protests, using covert military measures and deploying special operations forces, often under the guise of peacekeeping or crisis management. Such tactics, Gerasimov insisted, had been used by the United States for decades. Now Russia would fight back in the same way."

"Ideology behind the Russian war against Ukraine"

In preparation for the war, "Moscow has tested different ideological ideas," as says Dr. Illarionov. For instance, "Russia sees itself as a stronghold of true European values that have been forgotten or betrayed by the West. Russia is aiming to reclaim the lands of its ancestors" (territory of Ukraine, Belorussia). Another principle Kremlin uses called “call for justice and rule of law in the international relations.” This principle is very important to Mr. Putin. "It means if something is allowed to one subject of international relations (meaning the U.S.) then exactly the same must be allowed to Russia. For instance, if the U.S. has been allowed to bomb Afghanistan and overthrow the regime in Libya then Russian is allowed to bomb Georgia and meddle in Ukraine."

Mr. Putin will be defending this concept at the United Nations General Assembly meeting this coming September in New York. He will call for justice and equality in the international relations. 

Putin’s “grand bargain” and fate of Ukraine in it

As says Dr. Illarionov, "Russia recognizes the U.S. as a powerful country with its particular interests in different parts of the world. Moscow does not often like those interests and actions but it respects them." In return, "Kremlin expects Washington to respect Russia’s interests in Russian part of the world". In 2008 this concept became the official part of Russian foreign policy which was worded as “our sphere of privileged interests.”

Mr. Putin tried to present his offer to Mr. Obama a couple of times. Once it was in Beijing in November 2014 and later during G20 Brisbane Summit, November 2014. But his counterpart did not show interest in listening to him or taking him seriously. That attitude made Mr. Putin even more upset and forced him to deal more damage to Ukraine. As Mr. Illarionov said, Mr. Putin would push for more aggressive actions in Ukraine to prove he is serious with his intentions until he receives appropriate satisfactory attention. Mr. Putin made up his mind and he is capable of delivering his promises. If some think he would not go too far, they are deeply mistaken.

How can we fix this?

Dr. Illarionov concluded that in order to bring "peace and freedom to Eastern Europe and stop aggressor, we need to help Russia become a free and democratic country." Until that happens we will experience constant “quakes” caused by Russia.

The End

I think that Dr. Illarionov's analysis and explanations of Putin’s ideology, aspirations, and actions have to be taken very seriously, especially by Ukraine. Ukraine must sit at the table every time there is a discussion about its future. Ukraine can lose the part of its territory or even the right to carry its own foreign policy, if Kyiv allows someone else to talk on its behalf behind the closed doors.

To my opinion, Ukraine needs a strong partner who will not sell its principles and values for the short-term geopolitical gains. It is doubtful that such partner exists in the 21st-century. Ukraine should approach Russia by itself to defend its own interests and make a deal. Kyiv must do it as soon as possible.

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Please note: All analyses provided by Dr. Andrei Illarionov were based on publicly accessible resources. All information was solely his own views and opinions and it did not reveal any Kremlin’s secrets or plans about Ukraine.

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Sources:

Andrei Illarionov. “How Putin Prepared for the Big War.” Atlantic Council, Washington, April 07, 2015. Web. 07 Apr. 2015.

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/events/webcasts/how-putin-prepared-for-the-big-war

Prominent Russians: Andrey Illarionov. Russia Today. Web. 08 Apr. 2015.

http://russiapedia.rt.com/prominent-russians/politics-and-society/andrey-illarionov/

Fiona Hill. “Hybrid war: The real reason fighting stopped in Ukraine – for now.” Reuters, Feb. 26, 2015. Web. 14 Apr. 2015.  

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2015/02/26/hybrid-war-the-real-reason-fighting-stopped-in-ukraine-for-now/